Journals Higher Education

$34.95

Hardcover

Published: 01 May 2019

240 Pages | 46 black and white line drawings

6-1/8 x 9-1/4 inches

ISBN: 9780190938024


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Bookseller Code (01)

War and Chance

Assessing Uncertainty in International Politics

Jeffrey A. Friedman

Bridging the Gap

  • Provides the most comprehensive analysis to date of the logic, psychology, and politics of assessing uncertainty in international affairs
  • Draws on historical evidence including: high-profile cases in U.S. national security policy like the Vietnam War, assessments of Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction programs, and the search for Osama bin Laden
  • Uses quantitative evidence including: an analysis of a data set containing nearly one million geopolitical forecasts, and survey experiments administered to hundreds of national security professionals
  • Addresses a topic that has major implications for both the theory and the practice of international politics
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