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Published: 30 May 2019

248 Pages | 46 black and white line drawings


ISBN: 9780190938024

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War and Chance

Assessing Uncertainty in International Politics

Jeffrey A. Friedman

Bridging the Gap

  • Provides the most comprehensive analysis to date of the logic, psychology, and politics of assessing uncertainty in international affairs
  • Draws on historical evidence including: high-profile cases in U.S. national security policy like the Vietnam War, assessments of Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction programs, and the search for Osama bin Laden
  • Uses quantitative evidence including: an analysis of a data set containing nearly one million geopolitical forecasts, and survey experiments administered to hundreds of national security professionals
  • Addresses a topic that has major implications for both the theory and the practice of international politics

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