Preface
Chapter 1 Introduction
Chapter 2 The Rise of Labor Productivity
Quarterly Indicators of Aggregate Economic Quantities
Movements Along an Aggregate Marginal Productivity Schedule
On Average, Real Wages did not Fall
Was It Customer Demand? Factor Reduction and Factor Substitution by Industry
Neither Wealth Effects nor Intertemporal Substitution Effects Explain the "Supply" Shift
Labor Market Distortions since 2007
Conclusion: Productivity Patterns Begin to Reveal the Recession's Causes
Appendix 2.1: Productivity, Labor, and Residuals in Prior Downturns
Appendix 2.2: Sensitivity Analysis
Chapter 3 The Expanding Social Safety Net
A Framework for Quantifying the Generosity of the Safety Net as a Whole
Legislation Made the Safety Net Available to Millions More
Legislation Increased the Amount of Benefits Received per Program Participant
Most of the Increase in Government Safety Net Expenditure is the Direct Result of Program Rule Changes
Safety Net Rule Changes and Assistance for the Unemployed
Means-tested Loan Forgiveness
Conclusion: Replacement Rates for Aggregate Analysis
Appendix 3.1: Calculation and Aggregation of Statutory Eligibility and Benefit Indices
Appendix 3.2: Sensitivity Analysis
Appendix 3.3: The Self-Reliance Rate Outlook
Appendix 3.4: The Making Work Pay Tax Credit
Chapter 4 Supply and Demand: Labor Market Consequences of Safety Net Expansions
The Income-Maximization Fallacy
Labor and Output Effects of Safety Net Expansions
Predictions for Consumption and Investment
Calibrating the Wage Elasticity of Aggregate Labor Supply
Conclusions and Interpretation
Appendix 4.1: Comparative Advantage with Heterogeneous Effects of the Safety Net Expansions
Appendix 4.2: Calibrating the Supply Elasticity from Unemployment Duration Studies
Appendix 4.3: Safety Net Distortions Measured in Dollars per Year
Chapter 5 Means-Tested Subsidies and Economic Dynamics since 2007
The Neoclassical Growth Model with Targeted Means-Tested Subsidies
Data and Simulation Results
Effects of the Safety Net Expansion
Interpreting the Residual Labor Market Distortions
An Investment Distortion by Itself does not Fit Actual Behavior
Conclusions
Appendix 5.1: Calibration, Simulation, and Additional Sensitivity Analysis
Chapter 6 Cross-Sectional Patterns of Employment and Hours Changes
Cross-sectional Patterns of Self-Reliance Rate Changes
Work Hours Changes by Demographic Group and Region
Program Participation Changes by Demographic Group
Conclusion: The Cross-Sectional Patterns of Employment and Hours Changes are as Expected from a Large Safety Net Expansion
Appendix: Summary Statistics and Additional Results
Chapter 7 Keynesian and Other Models of Safety Net Stimulus
The Safety Net and Consumer Spending
Transfers and Government Purchases are not the Same
Labor Market Slack and the Marginal Effects of Supply
Sticky Prices, the Wage Elasticity of Labor Demand, and the Zero Lower Bound
An Econometric Model that Nests My Approach with the Slack Market and Sticky Price Hypotheses
Conclusion: Whether Labor Supply Matters More, or Less, during a Recession is an Empirical Question
Appendix: The Safety Net, Sticky Prices, and Monetary Policy
Chapter 8 Recession-Era Effects of Factor Supply and Demand: Evidence from the Seasonal Cycle, the Construction Market, and Minimum Wage Hikes
The Christmas and the Academic Seasons as Demand and Supply Shifts
Christmas Demand in Recessions and Booms
The Summer Seasonal for Employment and Unemployment
Housing Investment Crowds Out Non-Residential Construction
The Employment Effects of Recent Minimum Wage Hikes Were No Less than Before
The Federal Minimum Wage Hikes Likely Reduced National Employment by Hundreds of Thousands, Especially Among the Young and Unskilled
Conclusion: Labor Supply Still Matters, About as Much as It Did in the Past
Chapter 9 Incentives and Compliance under the Federal Mortgage Modification Guidelines
The Budget Set of a Borrower Facing the FDIC-HAMP Modification Guidelines
Borrower Reactions under Full Information and Full Compliance: Spend More and Work Less
Lender Incentives to Expand Modification Capacity
Conclusions
Appendix 9.1: Principal Modifications and the Eligible Income Range
Appendix 9.2: Marginal Tax Rates with Various Horizons and Discount Rates
Chapter 10 Uncertainty, Redistribution, and the Labor Market
A Model of the Equity-Efficiency Tradeoff
Possible Changes in the Equity-Efficiency Tradeoff, and the Optimal Degree of Social Insurance
The Cost-Benefit Analysis of Safety Net Expansions: Necessary Ingredients
Conclusions
Chapter 11 Conclusions
Incentives Matter
Was the Financial Collapse a Cause, or Effect?
Labor Supply and Demand Help Explain an Unhappy Situation
Bibliography