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Heuristics

The Foundations of Adaptive Behavior

Gerd Gigerenzer, Ralph Hertwig, and Thorsten Pachur

Shows that in order to make good decisions under uncertainty, one needs to ignore part of the information
Demonstrates that judges and burglars, managers, and consumers, dogs and ants, as well as participants in psychological laboratories rely on heuristics to solve problems
New, path-breaking way of thinking about human rationality
Compiles key articles of the simple heuristics program published across journals in different disciplines
Introduces the evolution and structure of the program, and puts each of the articles into context by short introductions

Heuristics

The Foundations of Adaptive Behavior

Gerd Gigerenzer, Ralph Hertwig, and Thorsten Pachur

Description

How do people make decisions when time is limited, information unreliable, and the future uncertain? Based on the work of Nobel laureate Herbert Simon and with the help of colleagues around the world, the Adaptive Behavior and Cognition (ABC) Group at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin has developed a research program on simple heuristics, also known as fast and frugal heuristics. In the social sciences, heuristics have been believed to be generally inferior to complex methods for inference, or even irrational. Although this may be true in "small worlds" where everything is known for certain, we show that in the actual world in which we live, full of uncertainties and surprises, heuristics are indispensable and often more accurate than complex methods. Contrary to a deeply entrenched belief, complex problems do not necessitate complex computations. Less can be more. Simple heuristics exploit the information structure of the environment, and thus embody ecological rather than logical rationality. Simon (1999) applauded this new program as a "revolution in cognitive science, striking a great blow for sanity in the approach to human rationality."
By providing a fresh look at how the mind works as well as the nature of rationality, the simple heuristics program has stimulated a large body of research, led to fascinating applications in diverse fields from law to medicine to business to sports, and instigated controversial debates in psychology, philosophy, and economics. In a single volume, the present reader compiles key articles that have been published in journals across many disciplines. These articles present theory, real-world applications, and a sample of the large number of existing experimental studies that provide evidence for people's adaptive use of heuristics.

Heuristics

The Foundations of Adaptive Behavior

Gerd Gigerenzer, Ralph Hertwig, and Thorsten Pachur

Introduction
List of Contributors
Appetizer
1. Homo heuristicus: Why Biased Minds Make Better Inferences.
Gerd Gigerenzer, and Henry Brighton
Part I: Theory
Opening the adaptive toolbox
2. Reasoning the Fast and Frugal Way: Models of Bounded Rationality.
Gerd Gigerenzer, and Daniel G. Goldstein
3. Models of Ecological Rationality: The Recognition Heuristic.
Daniel Goldstein and Gerd Gigerenzer
4. How Forgetting Aids Heuristic Inference.
Lael J. Schooler and R. Hertwig
5. Simple Heuristics and Rules of Thumb: Where Psychologists and Behavioral Biologists Might Meet.
John M.C. Hutchinson and Gerd Gigerenzer
6. Naive and Yet Enlightened: From Natural Frequencies to Fast and Frugal Decision Trees.
Laura Martignon, Oliver Vitouch, Masinori Takezawa, and Malcolm R. Forster
7. The Priority Heuristic: Making Choices without Trade-Offs.
Eduard Brandstätter, Gerd Gigerenzer, and Ralph Hertwig
8. One-Reason Decision making: Modeling Violations of Expected Utility Theory.
Konstantinos V. Katsikopoulos and Gerd Gigerenzer
9. The Similarity Heuristic.
Daniel Read and Yael Grushka-Cockayne
10. Hindsight Bias: A By-Product of Knowledge Updating?
Ulrich Hoffrage, Ralph Hertwig, and Gerd Gigerenzer
How are heuristics selected?
11. SSL: A Theory of How People Learn to Select Strategies.
Jõrg Rieskamp and Philipp E. Otto

Part II: Tests
When do heuristics work?
12. Fast, Frugal, and Fit: Simple Heuristics for Paired Comparison.
Laura Martignon and Ulrich Hoffrage
13. Heuristic and Linear Lodels of Judgment: Matching Rules and Environments.
Robin M. Hogarth and Natalia Karelaia
14. Categorization with Limited Resources: A Family of Simple Heuristics.
Laura Martignon, Konstantinos V. Katsikopoulo, and Jan K. Woike
15. A Signal Detection Analysis of the Recognition Heuristic.
Timothy J. Pleskac
16. The Relative Success of Recognition-Based Iinference in Multichoice Decisions.
Rachel McCloy, C. Philip Beaman, and T. Smith

When do people rely on one good reason?
17. The Quest for Take-the-Best.
Arndt Bröder
18. Empirical Tests of a Fast and Frugal Heuristic: Not Everyone "Takes-the-Best."
Ben R. Newell, Nicola J. Weston, and David R. Shanks
19. A Response-Time Approach to Comparing Generalized Rational and Take-the-Best Models of Decision Making.
F. Bryan Bergert and Robert M. Nosofsky
20. Sequential Processing of Cues in Memory-Based Multi-Attribute Decisions.
Arndt Bröder and Wolfgang Gaissmaier
21. Does Imitation Benefit Cue-OrderLlearning?
Rocio Garcia-Retamero, Masanori Takezawa, and Gerd Gigerenzer
22. The Aging Decision Maker: Cognitive Aging and the Adaptive Selection of Decision Strategies.
Rui Mata, Lael J. Schooler, and Jörg Rieskamp
When do people rely on name recognition?
23. On the Psychology of the Recognition Heuristic: Retrieval Primacy as a Key Determinant of its Use.
Thorsten Pachur and Ralph Hertwig
24. The Recognition Heuristic in Memory-Based Inference: Is Recognition a Non-Compensatory Cue?
Thorsten Pachur, Arndt Bröder, and Julian N. Marewski
25. Why You Think Milan is Larger than Modena: Neural Correlates of the Recognition Heuristic.
Kirsten G. Volz, Lael J. Schooler, Ricarda I. Schubotz, Markus Raab, Gerd Gigerenzer, and D. Yves von Cramon
26. Fluency Heuristic: A Model of How the Mind Exploits a By-Product of Information Retrieval.
Ralph Hertwig, Stefan M. Herzog, Lael J. Schooler, and Torsten Reimer
27. The Use of Recognition in Group Decision Making.
Torsten Reimer and Konstantinos V. Katsikopoulos

Part III: Heuristics in the Wild
Crime
28. Psychological Models of Professional Decision Making.
Mandeep K. Dhami
29. Geographic Profiling: The Fast, Frugal, and Accurate Way.
Brent Snook, Paul J. Taylor, and Craig Bennel
30. Take-the-Best in Expert-Novice Decision Strategies for Residential Burglary.
Rocio Garcia-Retamero and Mandeep K. Dhami
Sports
31. Predicting Wimbledon Tennis Results 2005 by Player Name Recognition.
Benjamin Scheibehenne and Arndt Bröder
32. Heuristics in Sports That Help Ws Win.
W.M. Bennis and Torsten Pachur
33. How Dogs Navigate to Catch Frisbees.
Dennis M. Shaffer, Scott M. Krauchunas, Marianna Eddy, and Michael K. McBeath
Investment
34. Optimal versus Naïve Diversification: How Inefficient in the 1/N Portfolio Strategy?
Victor DeMiguel, Lorenzo Garlappi, and Raman Uppal
35. Parental Investment: How an Equity Motive Can Produce Inequality.
Ralph Hertwig, Jennifer Nerissa Davis, and Frank J. Sulloway
36. Instant Customer Base analysis: Managerial Heuristics Often "Get It Right."
Markus Wübben and Florian v. Wangenheim
Everyday things
37. Green Defaults: Information Presentation and Pro-Environmental Behavior.
Daniel Pichert and Konstantinois V. Katsikopoulos
38. "IfEL": Satisficing Algorithms for Mapping Conditional Statements onto Social Domains.
Alejandro López-Rousseau and Timothy Ketelaar
39. Applying One-Reason Decision Making: The Prioritisation of Literature Searches
Michael D. Lee, Natasha Loughlin, and Ingrid B. Lundberg
40. Aggregate Age-at-Marriage Patterns from Individual Mate-Search Heuristics.
Peter M. Todd, Francesco C. Billari, and Jorge Simão

References
Name index
Subject index

Heuristics

The Foundations of Adaptive Behavior

Gerd Gigerenzer, Ralph Hertwig, and Thorsten Pachur

Author Information

Gerd Gigerenzer is Director of the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin, and former Professor of Psychology at the University of Chicago. He won the AAAS Prize for the best article in the behavioral sciences and the Association of American Publishers Prize for the best book in the social and behavioral sciences. His recent books include Rationality for Mortals, Gut Feelings, and Risk Savvy, translated into 21 languages.
Ralph Hertwig is Director of the Center for Adaptive Rationality at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin. His research investigates how individuals and groups juggle the simultaneous demands of uncertainty, data scarcity, and limits in cognitive resources when making decisions. He was previously Chair of Cognitive and Decision Sciences and Dean of the Faculty of Psychology at the University of Basel, and he is a recipient of the Heinz Heckhausen Young Scientist Prize and the Charlotte-und-Karl-Bühler Young Career Award.
Thorsten Pachur is Senior Researcher in the Center for Adaptive Rationality at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin. He studies learning and memory processes in decision making, strategy selection, and the psychology of risky choice.

Contributors:

C. Philip Beaman
School of Psychology & Clinical Language Sciences
University of Reading
Earley Gate
Reading RG6 6A, UK
c.p.beaman@reading.ac.uk

Craig Bennel
Department of Psychology
Carleton University
B550 Loeb Building
1125 Colonel By Drive,
Ottawa, Ontario, K1S 5B6, Canada
craig bennell@carleton.ca

Will M. Bennis
Department of Psychology
Northwestern University
2029 Sheridan Road - 102 Swift Hall
Evanston, IL 60208-2710, USA
wbennis@northwestern.edu

Bryan F. Bergert
Max Planck Institute for Human Development
Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition (ABC)
Lentzeallee 94
14195 Berlin, Germany
bergert@mpib-berlin.mpg.de

Eduard Brandstätter
Abteilung Sozial- und Wirtschaftspsychologie
Johannes Kepler Universität Linz
Altenberger Straße 69
A-4040 Linz, Austria
eduard.brandstaetter@jku.at

Henry Brighton
Max Planck Institute for Human Development
Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition (ABC)
Lentzeallee 94
14195 Berlin, Germany
hbrighton@mpib-berlin.mpg.de

Arndt Bröder
Department of Psychology
Schloss, Ehrenhof Ost
68131 Mannheim
Germany
broeder@uni-mannheim.de

Jennifer N. Davis
Institute of Theoretical Biology
Humboldt University

Victor DeMiguel
Management Science and Operations
London Business School
Regent's Park
London NW1 4SA, UK
avmiguel@london.edu

Arndt Bröder
Department of Psychology
Schloss, Ehrenhof Ost
68131 Mannheim
Germany
broeder@uni-mannheim.de

Marianna Eddy
Gabrieli Lab @ MIT
Department of Brain & Cognitive Sciences
43 Vassar Street, 46-4033
Cambridge, MA 02139, USA
eddym@mit.edu

Malcolm R. Forster
Department of Philosophy
University of Wisconsin-Madison
5185 Helen C. White Hall
600 North Park Street
Madison WI 53706, USA
mforster@wisc.edu

Wolfgang Gaissmaier
Social Psychology and Decision Sciences
University of Konstanz
Postfach 43
78457 Konstanz
Germany
gaissmaier@uni-konstanz.de

Rocío Garcia-Retamero
Faculty of Psychology
University of Granada
Campus Universitario de Cartuja s/n,
18071 Granada, Spain
rretamer@ugr.es

Lorenzo Garlappi
Department of Finance
Sauder School of Business
University of British Columbia
2053 Main Mall
Vancouver, BC V6T1Z2
Canada
lorenzo.garlappi@sauder.ubc.ca

Gerd Gigerenzer
Max Planck Institute for Human Development
Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition (ABC)
Lentzeallee 94
14195 Berlin. Germany
sekgigerenzer@mpib-berlin.mpg.de

Daniel G. Goldstein
Microsoft Research
641 Avenue of Americas
New York, NY 10011
United States
dan@dangoldstein.com

Yael Grushka-Cockayne
Darden School of Business
University of Virginia
100 Darden Blvd.
Charlottesville, VA 22903, USA
GrushkaY@darden.virginia.edu

Ralph Hertwig
Max Planck Institute for Human Development
Center for Adaptive Rationality
Lentzeallee 94
14195 Berlin
Germany
sekhertwig@mpib-berlin.mpg.de

Stefan M. Herzog
Max Planck Institute for Human Development
Center for Adaptive Rationality
Lentzeallee 94
14195 Berlin
Germany
herzog@mpib-berlin.mpg.de

Ulrich Hoffrage
Faculty of Business and Economics
University of Lausanne
Bâtiment Internef
1015 Lausanne, Switzerland
ulrich.hoffrage@unil.ch

Robin M. Hogarth
Department of Economics & Business
Pompeu Fabra University
Ramon Trias Fargas, 25 -27
08005 Barcelona, Spain
robin.hogarth@upf.edu

John M. C. Hutchinson
Senckenberg Museum für Naturkunde Görlitz
PF 300154
02806 Görlitz, Germany
majmch@gmail.com

Natalia Karelaia
Decision Sciences Area
Boulevard de Constance
77305 Fontainebleau, France
natalia.karelaia@insead.edu

Konstantinos V. Katsikopoulos
Max Planck Institute for Human Development
Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition (ABC)
Lentzeallee 94
14195 Berlin, Germany
katsikop@mpib-berlin.mpg.de

Timothy Ketelaar
Department of Psychology
New Mexico State University
Las Cruces, New Mexico 88003-8001, USA
ketelaar@nmsu.edu

Scott M. Krauchunas
Saint Anselm College
Manchester, NH, USA

Michael D. Lee
School of Social Sciences
University of California, Irvine
3151 Social Science Plaza A
Mail Code: 5100
Irvine, CA 92697, USA
mdlee@uci.edu

Alejandro López-Rousseau
Instituto de Empresa
Amor de Dios 4 - 1L
28014 Madrid, Spain
lopezrousseau@telefonica.net

Natasha Loughlin
Department of Psychology
University of Adelaide
SA 5005, Australia

Ingrid B. Lundberg
Department of Psychology
University of Adelaide
SA 5005, Australia

Julian N. Marewski
Department of Organizational Behaviour
Université de Lausanne
Quartier UNIL-Dorigny
Bâtiment Internef
1015 Lausanne
Switzerland
Julian.Marewski@unil.ch

Laura Martignon
Institut für Mathematik und Informatik
Pädagogische Hochschule Ludwigsburg
Reuteallee 46
71634 Ludwigsburg, Germany
martignon@ph-ludwigsburg.de

Rui Mata
Department of Psychology
University of Basel
Missionsstrasse 64a
4055 Basel, Switzerland
ruimata@ruimata.com

Michael K. McBeath
Department of Psychology
Arizona State University
Tempe, AZ 85287-1104, USA
Michael.McBeath@asu.edu

Rachel McCloy
Department of Psychology
School of Psychology & Clinical Language Sciences
University of Reading
Harry Pitt Building
Earley Gate
Reading RG6 6AL, UK
r.a.mccloy@reading.ac.uk

Ben R. Newell
School of Psychology
University of New South Wales
Sydney 2052, Australia
ben.newell@unsw.edu.au

Robert M. Nosofsky
Department of Psychological and Brain Sciences
Indiana University
1101 E. 10th Street
Bloomington, IN 47405, USA
nosofsky@indiana.edu

Philipp E. Otto
Faculty of Business Administration and Economics
European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder)
Postfach 1786
15207 Frankfurt (Oder), Germany
otto@euv-frankfurt-o.de

Thorsten Pachur
Max Planck Institute for Human Development
Center for Adaptive Rationality
Lentzeallee 94
14195 Berlin
Germany
pachur@mpib-berlin.mpg.de

Daniel Pichert
Max Planck Institute for Human Development
Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition (ABC)
Lentzeallee 94
14195 Berlin, Germany
danipu@gmx.de

Timothy J. Pleskac
Max Planck Institute for Human Development
Center for Adaptive Rationality
Lentzeallee 94
14195 Berlin
Germany
pleskac@mpib-berlin.mpg.de

Markus Raab
German Sport University Cologne
Am Sportpark
Müngersdorf 6
50933 Köln, Germany
raab@dshs-koeln.de

Daniel Read
Management Development Centre
Durham Business School
Durham University
Mill Hill Lane
Durham DH1 3LB, UK
daniel.read2@durham.ac.uk

Torsten Reimer
Department of Communication
Purdue University
100 North University Street
West Lafayette, IN 47907-2098, USA
treimer@purdue.edu

Jörg Rieskamp
Department of Psychology
University of Basel
Missionsstrasse 62a
4055 Basel, Switzerland
joerg.rieskamp@unibas.ch

Benjamin Scheibehenne
Department of Psychology
University of Basel
Missionsstrasse 62a
4055 Basel, Switzerland
benjamin.scheibehenne@unibas.ch

Leal J. Schooler
Max Planck Institute for Human Development
Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition (ABC)
Lentzeallee 94
14195 Berlin, Germany
schooler@mpib-berlin.mpg.de

Ricarda I. Schubotz
Department of Psychology
University of Münster
Fliednerstraße 21
D-48149 Münster
Germany
rschubotz@uni-muenster.de

Dennis M. Shaffer
Department of Psychology
The Ohio State University, Mansfield
352 Ovalwood Hall
1680 University Drive
Mansfield, OH 44906, USA
shaffer.247@osu.edu

David R. Shanks
Division of Psychology and Language Sciences
University College London
26 Bedford Way
London WC1H 0AP, UK
d.shanks@ucl.ac.uk

Jorge Simão
Department of Computer Science
University of Porto
R. do Campo Alegre, 823
4150-180 Porto, Portugal
jsimao@dcc.fc..up.pt

Philip T. Smith
School of Psychology & Clinical Sciences
University of Reading
Earley Gate
Whiteknights
Reading RG6 6AL, UK
p.t.smith@reading.ac.uk

Brent Snook
Psychology Department
Memorial University of Newfoundland
St. John's, NL, A1B 3X9, Canada
bsnook@play.psych.mun.ca

Frank J. Sulloway
Department of Psychology
University of California
Tolman Hall 4125
University of California
Berkeley, CA 94720-5050, USA
sulloway@berkeley.edu

Masanori Takezawa
Department of Behavioral Science
Hokkaido University,
N10W7 Kita-Ku
Sapporo 060-0810
Japan
m.takezawa@let.hokudai.ac.jp

Paul J. Taylor
Department of Psychology
Lancaster University
Fylde College
Lancaster LA1 4YF, UK
p.j.taylor@lancaster.ac.uk

Peter M. Todd
Program in Cognitive Science
Indiana University
1101 E. 10th Street
Bloomington, IN 47405, USA
pmtodd@indiana.edu

Raman Uppal
Institute of Finance and Accounting
London Business School
London NW1 4SA, UK
ruppal@london.edu

Oliver Vitouch
Department of Psychology
University of Klagenfurt
Universitätsstraße 65-67
A-9020 Klagenfurt, Austria
oliver.vitouch@uni-klu.ac.at

Kirsten G. Volz
Max Planck Institute for Human Development
Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition (ABC)
Lentzeallee 94
14195 Berlin, Germany
volz@mpib-berlin.mpg.de

D. Yves von Cramon
Max Planck Institut for Human Cognitive and Brain Sciences
Stephanstraße 1A
04103 Leipzig, Germany
cramon@cbs.mpg.de

Florian von Wangenheim
Department of Management, Technology and Economics
ETH Zürich
Weinbergstr. 56/58
8092 Zurich
Switzerland
fwangenheim@ethz.ch

Nicola J Weston-Bell, PhD
University of Southampton
Faculty of Medicine
Tremona Road
Southampton SO24 0NH
UK
n.j.weston-bell@soton.ac.uk

Jan K. Woike
Max Planck Institute for Human Development
Center for Adaptive Rationality
Lentzeallee 94
14195 Berlin
Germany
woike@mpib-berlin.mpg.de

Markus Wübben
Business Administration
Technical University of Munich
Arcisstr. 21
80333 München, Germany
markus@wuebben.net