Journals Higher Education

Open Access



Published: 25 October 2012

272 Pages

8.5 x 5.4 inches

ISBN: 9780199697243

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Bookseller Code (06)

Part of the OAPEN-UK project

Explaining Criminal Careers

Implications for Justice Policy

John F. MacLeod, Peter Grove, and David Farrington

  • This is an open access title available under the terms of a CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 International licence
  • Presents a simple but influential theory of criminal careers using the Home Office Offenders Index, a unique database containing records of all criminal (standard list) convictions in England and Wales since 1963
  • The theory accurately predicts (to within 2%) the prison population contingent on a given sentencing policy
  • Suggests that increasing the probability of conviction after each offence is the most effective way of reducing crime, although there is a role for treatment programmes for some offenders
  • Includes comprehensive explanations of the formulae used and complete mathematical appendices facilitating further development of the theory

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