Empirical Methods in Short-Term Climate Prediction

Huug van den Dool

Fills a gap in the literature for a text covering information on the methodology in short-term climate prediction
Gives an overview of the methods of data analysis used in long-lead seasonal forecasts
Highly illustrated; includes colour plate section
Extensive referencing throughout the book
Includes foreword by Professor Edward Lorenz (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

Empirical Methods in Short-Term Climate Prediction

Huug van den Dool

Description

This clear and accessible text describes the methods underlying short-term climate prediction at time scales of 2 weeks to a year. Although a difficult range to forecast accurately, there have been several important advances in the last ten years, most notably in understanding ocean-atmosphere interaction (El Nino for example), the release of global coverage data sets, and in prediction methods themselves. With an emphasis on the empirical approach, the text covers in detail empirical wave propagation, teleconnections, empirical orthogonal functions, and constructed analogue. It also provides a detailed description of nearly all methods used operationally in long-lead seasonal forecasts, with new examples and illustrations. The challenges of making a real time forecast are discussed, including protocol, format, and perceptions about users. Based where possible on global data sets, illustrations are not limited to the Northern Hemisphere, but include several examples from the Southern Hemisphere. Includes foreword by Professor Edward Lorenz (Massachusetts Institute of Technology).

Empirical Methods in Short-Term Climate Prediction

Huug van den Dool

Foreword, Professor Edward Lorenz (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
Preface
1:Introduction
2:Background on orthogonal functions and covariance
3:Empirical wave propagation
4:Teleconnections
5:Empirical orthogonal functions
6:Degrees of freedom
7:Analogues
8:Methods in short-term climate prediction
9:The practice of short-term climate prediction
10:Conclusion
References
Index

Empirical Methods in Short-Term Climate Prediction

Huug van den Dool

Author Information

Huug van den Dool, Principal Scientist, CPC and Adjunct Professor, University of Maryland

Contributors:

Professor Edward Lorenz (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

Empirical Methods in Short-Term Climate Prediction

Huug van den Dool

Reviews and Awards

"Thoughtful, original, and worthy of serious consideration" - Daniel S. Wilks, Professor of Atmospheric Science in the Department of Earth & Atmospheric Sciences at Cornell University in Ithaca, New York

"This is a great book ... every student and practitioner of climate prediction should have a copy on their desk" - The Geographical Journal