Cyberwar

How Russian Hackers and Trolls Helped Elect a President - What We Don't, Can't, and Do Know

Kathleen Hall Jamieson

Powerful, evidence-based analysis by one of the deans of American politics on how Russian interference likely tilted the 2016 election to Donald Trump
Marshals unique polling data and rigorous media framing analysis to explain why in all probability the interference had an effect on the outcome
Provides a qualified yet compelling answer in the affirmative to the biggest question left over from the election: Did the Russians help elect Donald Trump?
Carefully lays out the challenges to the notion that the Russians tilted the election and methodically dispenses with them

Cyberwar

How Russian Hackers and Trolls Helped Elect a President - What We Don't, Can't, and Do Know

Kathleen Hall Jamieson

Description

The question of how Donald Trump won the 2016 election looms over his presidency. In particular, were the 78,000 voters who gave him an Electoral College victory affected by the Russian trolls and hackers? Trump has denied it. So too has Vladimir Putin. Others cast the answer as unknowable.

Drawing on path-breaking work in which she and her colleagues isolated significant communication effects in the 2000 and 2008 presidential campaigns, the eminent political communication scholar Kathleen Hall Jamieson marshals the troll posts, unique polling data, analyses of how the press used the hacked content, and a synthesis of half a century of media effects research to argue that, although not certain, it is probable that the Russians helped elect the 45th president of the United States.

In the process, Cyberwar tackles questions that include: How extensive was the troll messaging? What characteristics of the social media platforms did the Russians exploit? Why did the mainstream press rush the hacked content into the citizenrys newsfeeds? Was Clinton telling the truth when she alleged that the debate moderators distorted what she said in the leaked speeches? Did the Russian influence extend beyond social media and news to alter the behavior of FBI director James Comey?

After detailing the ways in which the Russian efforts were abetted by the press, social media platforms, the candidates, party leaders, and a polarized public, Cyberwar closes with a warning: the country is ill-prepared to prevent a sequel.

Cyberwar

How Russian Hackers and Trolls Helped Elect a President - What We Don't, Can't, and Do Know

Kathleen Hall Jamieson

Prologue
Introduction
Part One: Who Did It, Why, and How It May Have Mattered
Chapter One: How Do We Know that the Russians Meddled in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election?
Chapter Two: A Theory of Communication that Posits Effects
Part Two: The Pre-Requisites of Influence
Chapter Three: Pre-Requisite One: Widespread Messaging
Chapter Four: Pre-Requisite Two: Messages Aligned with Trump's Electoral Interests
Chapter Five: Pre-Requisite Three: Messages to Mobilize Veterans and White Christians, Demobilizing Blacks and Sanders' Supporters, Shifting Liberals to Stein
Chapter Six: Pre-Requisite Four: Well-Targeted Content
Chapter Seven: Pre-Requisite Five: Persuasive Appeals
Part Three: Exposure: How the Russians Affected the News and Debate Agendas in the Last Month of the Campaign
Chapter Eight: The Russian Effect On Press Coverage in October
Chapter Nine: The Effect of the Stolen Emails on the Last Two Presidential Debates
Chapter Ten: The Russian Effect on the Media Agenda in the Last Days of the Election
Part Four: What We Don't, Can't, and Do Know About How Russian Hackers and Trolls Helped Elect Donald J. Trump
Afterword: Lessons
Appendices
Appendix One: Changes in Perceptions of Clinton and Trump in October
Appendix Two: Debate 2 and Debate 3 Exposure Effect on Candidate Trait Evaluations
Appendix Three: Association between Perception Changes and Vote Intentions
References

Cyberwar

How Russian Hackers and Trolls Helped Elect a President - What We Don't, Can't, and Do Know

Kathleen Hall Jamieson

Author Information

Kathleen Hall Jamieson, Professor of Communication, University of Pennsylvania

Kathleen Hall Jamieson is the Elizabeth Ware Packard Professor of Communication at the Annenberg School for Communication of the University of Pennsylvania and Director of its Annenberg Public Policy Center. Among her award winning Oxford University Press books are Packaging the Presidency, Eloquence in an Electronic Age, Spiral of Cynicism (with Joseph Cappella), and The Obama Victory (with Kenski and Hardy).

Cyberwar

How Russian Hackers and Trolls Helped Elect a President - What We Don't, Can't, and Do Know

Kathleen Hall Jamieson

Reviews and Awards

I found Jamieson's even-handed approach and detailed evidence both convincing and refreshing. - Terri Apter, Books of the Year 2018, The Times Literary Supplement

Illuminating, timely, Cyberwar is a major step forward in trying to understand the 'new' media order ... Jamieson provides perhaps the first authoritative account and synthesis of the copious amounts of data surrounding the 2016 attack ... the result is perhaps the clearest-cut glimpse of what an information war looks like... Cyberwar is more powerful for what it is not... - Alexander Kimburg, Nature

In her breakthrough new book Cyberwar, Kathleen Hall Jamieson applies her legendary skills to a forensic examination of the Russian hackers, trolls and bots who reshaped American public opinion through social media platforms, using data analytics to achieve maximum impact. Her masterful study provides a compelling answer to the question of whether Russia likely helped elect an American President. - Andrea Mitchell, NBC News Chief Foreign Affairs Correspondent MSNBC Anchor

Kathleen Hall Jamieson has performed a great service not just for politicians, journalists and curious citizens, but most important, for American democracy, by taking a scholar's approach to answering one of the most urgent and gnawing questions of our time: how did Russia try to influence the U.S. elections of 2016 and how much difference did that make? This is a must-read for everyone who cares about the future of the American electoral system. - Judy Woodruff, Anchor and Managing Editor, The PBS NewsHour

Kathleen Hall Jamieson mounts a strong challenge to the conventional wisdom that the Russia interference in the 2016 presidential race did not affect the outcome. Drawing on her expertise in presidential elections and how messages are received, she shows how the hacked emails influenced the media's focus and traces the powerful synergies between what the trolls were saying and what voters were ready to believe. It is hard to imagine a better application of careful scholarship to a central question for our country and deserves a wide readership. - Robert Jervis, Adlai E. Stevenson Professor of International Politics, Columbia University

One hopes [...] that everyone who studies presidential elections, everyone who safeguards their security, and particularly every journalist who covers them will heed this book. - Regina G. Lawrence, Public Opinion Quartlery