Catastrophe

Risk and Response

Richard A. Posner

Collision with an asteroid, runaway global warming, a pandemic of gene-spliced smallpox launched by bioterrorists, and a world-ending accident in a high-energy particle accelerator, are among the extinction events that are sufficiently likely to warrant careful study. How should we respond to events that, for a variety of reasons, we find it hard to wrap our minds around? Posner argues that realism about science and scientists, innovative applications of cost-benefit analysis, a scientifically literate legal profession, unprecedented international cooperation, and a pragmatic attitude toward civil liberties are among the keys to coping effectively.

Catastrophe

Risk and Response

Richard A. Posner

Description

Catastrophic risks are much greater than is commonly appreciated. Collision with an asteroid, runaway global warming, voraciously replicating nanomachines, a pandemic of gene-spliced smallpox launched by bioterrorists, and a world-ending accident in a high-energy particle accelerator, are among the possible extinction events that are sufficiently likely to warrant careful study. How should we respond to events that, for a variety of psychological and cultural reasons, we find it hard to wrap our minds around? Posner argues that realism about science and scientists, innovative applications of cost-benefit analysis, a scientifically literate legal profession, unprecedented international cooperation, and a pragmatic attitude toward civil liberties are among the keys to coping effectively with the catastrophic risks.

Catastrophe

Risk and Response

Richard A. Posner

Introduction
What is catastrophe?
The organization of this book
Some useful disctinctions
1. What are the catastrohpic risks, and how catastrophic are they?
Natural catastrophes
Scientific accidents
Other unintended man-made catastrophes
Intentional catastrophes
Catastrophic synergies and lesser-included catastrophes
2. Why so little is being done about the catastrophic risks
Cultural factors
Psychological factors
Economic factors
3. How to evaluate the catastrophic risks and the possible responses to them
The difference cost-benefit analysis can make: the case of RHIC
A modest version of the precautionary principle
Discounting to present value
Taxes, subsidies, and options: the case of global warming
Valuing human lives
Risk versus uncertainty
Coping with uncertainty
Politics, expertise, and neutrality: RHIC revisited
Summary
4. How to reduce the catastrophic risks
Institutional reforms
Fiscal tools: a recap
Some hypothetical regulatory policies
Conclusion
Notes
Index

Catastrophe

Risk and Response

Richard A. Posner

Author Information

Richard A. Posner is Judge of the U.S. Court Appeals for the Seventh Circuit, and a senior lecturer at the University of Chicago Law School. He is the author of numerous books, including Overcoming Law a New York Times Book Review editors' choices for best book of 1995 and An Affair of State, one of their choices for Best Book of the Year in 1999.

Catastrophe

Risk and Response

Richard A. Posner

Reviews and Awards

"We would be well advised to... take the message of this book seriously. We ignore it at (a small risk of) our (very great) peril."--Peter Singer, The New York Times Book Review

"[Posner] addresses what can be done to improve the assessment of...catastrophic risks and of the possible responses to them. [Catastrophe] examines a number of possible institutional reforms at the law-science interface that may aid in coping with [these] risks."--Journal of Economic Literature

"Catastrophe is worth the price of the book simply for Posner's lively and readable summary of the apocalyptic dystopias that serious scientists judge to be possible."-- Graham Allison, The Washington Post Book World

"Interesting and provocative...it is well worth reading."--The Federal Lawyer

"A fine lawyerly analysis.... Posner's perspective, very different from those held by most scientists, is a welcome addition to considerations of catastrophic risks."--Science

"Will likely spark controversy.... subtle insights...[and] thoughtful analysis."--Publishers Weekly

"Once again, Judge Posner has added to our cultural dialogue in a useful and interesting way."--Law and Politics Book Review

"A valuable contribution to the study of risk control and management."--Natural Resources Journal