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Counting Civilian Casualties
An Introduction to Recording and Estimating Nonmilitary Deaths in Conflict
Edited by Taylor B. Seybolt, Jay D. Aronson, and Baruch Fischhoff
TS: Assistant Professor of International and Human Security in the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Pittsburgh and author of Humanitarian Military Intervention: the Conditions for Success and Failure (Oxford, 2007)JA: Associate Professor of Science, Technology, and Society at Carnegie Mellon UniversityBF: Howard Heinz University Professor of Social and Decision Sciences and Engineering and Public Policy at Carnegie Mellon University
Jay Aronson is an Associate Professor of Science, Technology, and Society at Carnegie Mellon University. His research and teaching focus on the interactions of science, technology, law, and human rights in a variety of contexts. His first book, Genetic Witness: Science, Law, and Controversy in the Making of DNA Profiling (Rutgers University Press, 2007), examines the development of forensic DNA analysis in the American legal system. He is currently engaged in a long-term study of the ethical, political, and social dimensions of post-conflict and post-disaster DNA identification of the missing and disappeared. He received his PhD in History of Science and Technology from the University of Minnesota and was both a pre- and post-doctoral fellow at Harvard University's
John F. Kennedy School of Government.
Baruch Fischhoff is Howard Heinz University Professor, in the Departments of Social and Decision Sciences and of Engineering and Public Policy at Carnegie Mellon University. A graduate of the Detroit Public Schools, he holds a PhD in psychology from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. He is a member of the Institute of Medicine of the National Academy of Sciences and currently chairs the National Research Council Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security. He also chairs the Food and Drug Administration Risk Communication Advisory Committee. He is a member of the Department of Homeland Security's Science and Technology Advisory Committee, the World Federation of Scientists Permanent Monitoring Panel on Terrorism, and the Department of State Global Expertise Program. He is a Fellow of the American Psychological Association, the American Psychological Society, and the Society for Risk Analysis. He has co-authored or edited six books, Risk: A Very Short Introduction (Oxford University Press, 2011), Acceptable Risk (Cambridge University Press, 1981), A Two-State Solution in the Middle East: Prospects and Possibilities (Carnegie Mellon University Press, 1993), Preference Elicitation (Springer, 1999), Intelligence Analysis (National Academies Press, 2011), and Risk Communication: The Mental Models Approach (Cambridge University Press, 2001).
Taylor Seybolt is the Director of the Ford Institute for Human Security and an Assistant Professor at the Graduate School of Public and International Affairs, University of Pittsburgh. He was a senior program officer at the United States Institute of Peace in Washington, DC, from 2002 to 2008. During his years in Washington, he was a Professorial Lecturer at the Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies and an Adjunct Professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University. From 1999 to 2002, he was Leader of the Conflicts and Peace Enforcement Project at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) in Sweden. Seybolt is the author of Humanitarian Military Intervention: the Conditions for Success and Failure (Oxford University Press, 2007). He was an advisor to the Genocide Prevention Task Force, co-chaired by Madeleine Albright and William Cohen. He has received grants and fellowships from the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government, the MacArthur Foundation and USIP. Seybolt holds a PhD in political science from MIT.
* * *
Jana Asher is a statistician who specializes in the collection and analysis of human rights violations data. She has worked on projects for the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia, the Peruvian Truth and Reconciliation Commission, Physicians for Human Rights, Human Rights Watch, the East Timor Truth and Reconciliation Commission, the Sierra Leone Truth and Reconciliation Commission, the American Bar Association, and the U.S. Census Bureau.
Patrick Ball is Chief Scientist and Director, Human Rights Program at Benetech. He is a leading innovator in applying scientific measurement to human rights. He has spent more than twenty years designing databases and conducting quantitative analysis for truth commissions, nongovernmental organizations, tribunals, and United Nations missions in El Salvador, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Haiti, South Africa, Kosovo, Sierra Leone, Sri Lanka, and Peru. Patrick is currently involved in HRDAG projects in Sierra Leone, Chad, Sri Lanka, East Timor, Colombia, and others.
Hamit Dardagan developed the Iraq Body Count Project (IBC) jointly with John Sloboda. He is principal researcher for IBC with responsibility for ongoing development of the method of analysis of media reports, and for the conceptual development of the website. He has written items for Counterpunch, and has undertaken research for a number of organizations, including Greenpeace. He has been chair of Kalayaan, a human rights campaign for overseas domestic workers in the United Kingdom. He is also the Oxford Research Group's Consultant on Civilian Casualties in War.
Anita Gohdes is a Field Consultant for the Benetech Human Rights Data Analysis Group She worked for UNIFEM West Africa for six months in Abuja/Nigeria. She has previously provided research assistance at the University of Konstanz and the University of Essex). Her research interests focus on the quantitative analysis of human rights violations, women's rights and the relationship between economic factors and political repression.
Madelyn Hsiao-Rei Hicks is an Honorary Lecturer with the Department of Health Service and Population Research, at the Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London, and a non-executive director of Iraq Body Count. She is a cross-cultural psychiatrist with a background in medical anthropology whose publications have focused on civilian casualties of war; immigrant and refugee mental health; military mental health; domestic violence; suicidality; and depression. Her research on war combines public health and human rights perspectives.
Amelia Hoover-Green is a Field Consultant for the Human Rights Data Analysis Group at Benetech. Her HRDAG work includes data analysis and writing on Kosovo, Colombia, and Liberia, among other projects. She has been closely involved with HRDAG projects to bridge the academy/advocacy divide. Her research at Yale University explores the effects of armed group institutions for ideological indoctrination, discipline and socialization on patterns of violence against noncombatants. She was a 2008-9 Peace Scholar Dissertation Fellow at the United States Institute of Peace.
Britta L. Jewell is a PhD student in Infectious Disease Epidemiology at Imperial College, London. She completed an MSc degree in the History of Science, Medicine, and Technology at Oxford University in 2011. She also holds a BA degree, with Highest Honors, in History
from the University of California, Berkeley. Her interests lie in the intersection of science and medicine with social historical phenomena, with particular emphasis on issues affecting women's rights and place in societies.
Nicholas P. Jewell is Professor of Biostatistics and Statistics at the University of
California, Berkeley. He has held various academic and administrative positions at
Berkeley since his arrival in 1981, most notably serving as Vice Provost from 1994 to
2000. He has also held academic appointments at Stanford University, Princeton University, the University of Edinburgh, and Oxford University. He is a Fellow of the American Statistical Association, the Institute of Mathematical Statistics, and the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS).
Jeff Klingner is a computer scientist and consultant for the Human Rights Data Analysis Group at Benetech. Dr. Klingner has collaborated with HRDAG since 2005, analyzing government documents and other data associated with human rights abuses in Chad and India. He has designed and written a machine-learning software package for de-duplicating and merging lists of violent deaths and other human rights violations. HRDAG has applied this technology to many analyses, including its work Colombia, El Salvador, Liberia, and Sierra Leone.
Keith Krause is Professor of International Politics at the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in Geneva, and Director of its Programme for Strategic and International Security Studies. He is the founder and Programme Director of the Small Arms Survey project. His published work includes Arms and the State (Cambridge University Press, 1992) and chapters in a dozen edited volumes. He is also the editor or co-editor of Culture and Security: Multilateralism, Arms Control and Security Building (Frank Cass, 1999); Critical Security Studies: Concepts and Cases (University of Minnesota Press, 1997); and State, Society and the United Nations System: Changing Perspectives on Multilateralism (UN University Press, 1995).
Jule Krüger is a Field Consultant for the Human Rights Data Analysis Group at Benetech. At HDRAG she has conducted data analysis of human rights violations during the armed conflicts in Liberia and other locations, and has coauthored the HRDAG Report and Annex to the Final Report of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission of Liberia. Her research interests include disaggregate conflict analysis, dynamics of conflict violence and repression, as well as the effects of violence and human rights reporting on data used in empirical analysis.
Todd Landman is Professor of Government and Director of the Institute for Democracy and Conflict Resolution at the University of Essex. He is author or coauthor of many books, including Protecting Human Rights (Georgetown University Press, 2005), Studying Human Rights (Routledge, 2006), Issues and Methods in Comparative Politics (Routledge, 2000, 2003, 2008), Assessing the Quality of Democracy (International IDEA 2008), and Citizenship Rights and Social Movements (Oxford University Press, 1997, 2000). He has carried out numerous projects for the United Nations, the European Commission, Minority Rights Group International, Amnesty International, and the governments of the United Kingdom, Denmark, Canada, Sweden, and the Netherlands.
Meghan Foster Lynch is conducting research at Yale University on the micro-dynamics of political violence, with a regional focus on sub-Saharan Africa. She has done extensive fieldwork in Burundi, analyzing the causes for the variation in violence at the local level during the 1993-2009 civil war. Her research has been funded by a Jacob K. Javits Fellowship, a National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship, a National Science Foundation Doctoral Dissertation Improvement Grant, and research grants from the Yale Institute for Social and Policy Studies and the MacMillan Center for International and Area Studies at Yale.
Daniel Manrique-Vallier is a Statistician and Information Systems specialist at Duke University. Between 2001 and 2003 he worked as the Head of the Database Area at the Peruvian Truth and Reconciliation Commission, where he also co-authored a statistical study estimating the number of casualties during the internal armed conflict in Peru. He has also served as an advisor for human rights documentation projects in Sri Lanka and for HURIDOCS, Switzerland.
Megan Price is a Statistician with the Human Rights Data Analysis Group (HRDAG). She recently earned her PhD in Biostatistics and a Certificate in Human Rights from the Rollins School of Public Health at Emory University. Dr. Price also has a MS and BS in Statistics from Case Western Reserve University. Prior to joining HRDAG, she co-authored
Romesh Silva is a Demographer/statistician with the Human Rights Data Analysis Group at Benetech. Since 2001, he has led HRDAG projects in India, Sri Lanka, Timor-Leste, Chad, and Bangladesh and also contributed to projects in Colombia, Sierra Leone, Guatemala and Liberia.
Romesh has co-authored a number of policy-related reports and scholarly publications on the statistics of large-scale human rights violations in conflict zones. Romesh previously served as a Statistical Consultant to the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in Laos.
John Sloboda is Co-Director of Oxford Research Group's Programme on Recording Casualties in Armed Conflict (
Michael Spagat is a Professor of Economics at Royal Holloway College, University of London. He gained his PhD at Harvard University and has held faculty posts at Brown University and the University of Illinois. His papers on armed conflict that have been published in such places as Nature, the New England Journal of Medicine, the Journal of Peace Research, the Journal of Conflict Resolution and PLoS Medicine. His current research addresses universal patterns in modern war, the Dirty War Index, and civilian casualties in the Iraq conflict.
Ewa Tabeau has been the project leader of the Demographic Unit at the Office of the Prosecutor (OTP), International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY), in The Hague. At the Tribunal she has studied demographic consequences of the wars in the former Yugoslavia and provided crime statistics to trials and investigations at the OTP. Among the many expert reports she has prepared for the ICTY are reports for the cases of Milosevic, Karadzic, and Seslj. She has acted as an expert for the Khmer Rouge Tribunal in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, for whom she assessed the existing estimates of casualties of the Khmer Rouge regime of 1975-79.
Jan Zwierzchowski is a researcher at the Institute of Statistics and Demography of the Warsaw School of Economic in Poland. In 2009 and 2010, he worked for the Demographic Unit, Office of the Prosecutor, of the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia.